Do Corruption and Institutional Governance Matter for Crop Productivity in Nigeria? Evidence from Time-Series Analysis

Do Corruption and Institutional Governance Matter for Crop Productivity in Nigeria? Evidence from Time-Series Analysis

Abstract

This study investigates the effect of corruption and institutional governance on crop productivity in Nigeria from 1990 to 2023, focusing on asymmetric policy effects. Annual time-series data were used, with crop productivity as the dependent variable and corruption perception, control of corruption, rule of law, voice and accountability, and government agricultural expenditure as explanatory variables. The Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach was employed to examine asymmetric short- and long-run effects. The bounds test confirms a long-run relationship, with an F-statistic of 10.01806 exceeding the 5% upper-bound critical value of 3.24. Findings reveal significant asymmetric effects of corruption and institutional governance on crop productivity. In the short run, deterioration in corruption perceptions reduces crop productivity, while improvements in rule of law and control of corruption enhance productivity. Long-run estimates show that corruption perceptions negatively affect crop productivity, whereas improved rule of law increases productivity. The error-correction coefficient of -0.6991 indicates that 69.91% of short-run disequilibrium is corrected annually. The study concludes that institutional quality is critical to agricultural productivity and recommends stronger accountability, effective corruption control, consistent agricultural policies, and transparent public expenditure.